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Q3 2025: Markets resilient in a challenging environment Nine months into the year, markets have been stronger than many anticipated. Equity indexes posted sizeable gains, with the S&P 500, S&P/TSX, and MSCI EAFE up 13.7%, 21.4%, and 22.3%, respectively, year to date. 1  Bonds also delivered positive returns of 6.1%, 3.0%, and 7.9% as measured by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index, and the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index, respectively. 1   For a period marked by ongoing uncertainty, these are notable results. That resilience came against a steady flow of unsettling news. Concerns about slower growth persisted. Conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East remained unresolved, and political instability along with trade disputes among the world's largest economies added to the strain. Under these circumstances, weaker performance would have seemed more likely. Instead, several factors helped counter those pressures through the quarter. In the U.S., a major piece of legislation called the “One Big Beautiful Bill” may have bolstered investor confidence. Some easing of global tariff tensions contributed to more stability for international business. Central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, lowered interest rates, supporting growth and indicating a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence have garnered attention for their potential implications on productivity and profitability. Short-term market fluctuations are a possibility but can’t be predicted with certainty. Stock prices are above long-term averages and recent market momentum has been observed in certain sectors, such as information technology. Seasonal patterns can also contribute to volatility toward year end. However, trying to time the market is notoriously difficult and often counterproductive. The lesson history teaches is that investors who stay focused on their long-term goals tend to have fared better over time. If you’d like to discuss recent developments or how they may affect your investments, please reach out.   Source: 1 Bloomberg, January 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is the benchmark Canadian index that tracks the performance of companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index tracks the performance of U.S. investment-grade bonds in government, asset-backed, and corporate debt markets. The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index tracks the performance of marketable government and corporate bonds outstanding in the Canadian market. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index tracks the performance of global investment-grade debt in fixed-rate treasury, government-related, corporate, and securitized bond markets. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.  Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Financial markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. This material was prepared solely for informational purposes and does not take into account the suitability, investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person.  All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest. While helpful, these overviews are no substitute for professional tax, investment, or legal advice. Manulife Wealth Inc. and/or Manulife Wealth Insurance Services Inc. ("Manulife Wealth") makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information contained in this publication.  This publication does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, an offer, or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Wealth to any person to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment approach. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Diversification or asset allocation doesn’t guarantee a profit or protect against the risk of loss in any market. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material is intended for the exclusive use of recipients in jurisdictions who are allowed to receive the material under their applicable law. The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and are subject to change without notice. Our investment teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. These opinions may not necessarily reflect the views of Manulife Wealth. The information and/or analysis contained in this material has been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but Manulife Wealth does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness, or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of the information and/or analysis contained.  The information in this material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. The information in this document, including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Manulife Wealth disclaims any responsibility to update such information.  Manulife Wealth shall not assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained here. As each situation is different, you should seek advice based on your specific circumstances. Please call to arrange for an appointment.  Copyright 2025 by Manulife Wealth Inc. Manulife, Manulife & Stylized M Design, Stylized M Design, Manulife Wealth, and Where will better take you are trademarks of The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company and are used by it, and by its affiliates, under license.

From tariffs to tensions, markets found a way to deliver Imagine a year characterized by economic uncertainty from tariffs, geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, and concerns about a global economic slowdown. Under those conditions, it would have been reasonable to anticipate stagnant or even declining global equity and bond markets. Instead, the MSCI World Index rose 2.9% in Q4, finishing the year up 19.5%. In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index gained 2.3% in the quarter and 16.4% for the year. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index increased 5.6% for the quarter and 28.2% for the year.  1   Bonds also advanced, with the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index up 2.6% for the year (but down slightly at -0.3% for the quarter), and the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index up 1.1% in Q4 and 7.3% for the year. 1 For investors, 2025 was another reminder that headlines don’t always dictate returns. What drove market returns in 2025? 1.     Stable economic growth Despite concerns about a downturn, markets held firm, helped by easing inflation and sustained economic activity. 2 2.     Interest rates Central banks reportedly made approximately 300 interest rate cuts over the last 24 months (as of December 31, 2025). 3 Investors generally view rate cuts as stimulative, with their effects typically being felt over the following 12 to 15 months. 4 3.     Technological innovation AI-related announcements continued to spark rallies. Optimism around productivity gains and profit growth remained strong. 5 Looking toward 2026 Short-term market fluctuations are part of the investing experience. Even so, several factors could influence the year ahead: ongoing investment in AI, potential interest rate adjustments, and a constructive economy. Balance short-term noise with long-term goals Headlines will bring surprises, and volatility can test patience. Successful investing isn’t about reacting to every market move. It’s about maintaining perspective when conditions change and keeping decisions anchored to long-term objectives. That discipline helps turn periods of uncertainty into progress over time.   Sources:  1 Bloomberg, January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025. 2 Economic growth in 2025 has defied the gloomy expectations .   3 Central Bank Rates | Worldwide Interest Rates . 4 When the Fed Cuts: Lessons from Past Cycles for Investors - CFA Institute Enterprising Investor . 5 Just how big is the AI investment wave? .   The MSCI World Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of developed market companies. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is the benchmark Canadian index that tracks the performance of companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index tracks the performance of marketable government and corporate bonds outstanding in the Canadian market. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index tracks the performance of U.S. investment-grade bonds in government, asset-backed, and corporate debt markets. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Financial markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. This material was prepared solely for informational purposes and does not take into account the suitability, investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person. All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest. While helpful, these overviews are no substitute for professional tax, investment, or legal advice. Manulife Wealth Inc. and/or Manulife Wealth Insurance Services Inc. ("Manulife Wealth") makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information contained in this publication. This publication does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, an offer, or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Wealth to any person to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment approach. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Diversification or asset allocation doesn’t guarantee a profit or protect against the risk of loss in any market. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material is intended for the exclusive use of recipients in jurisdictions who are allowed to receive the material under their applicable law. The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and are subject to change without notice. Our investment teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. These opinions may not necessarily reflect the views of Manulife Wealth. The information and/or analysis contained in this material has been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but Manulife Wealth does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness, or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of the information and/or analysis contained. The information in this material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. The information in this document, including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Manulife Wealth disclaims any responsibility to update such information.  Manulife Wealth shall not assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained here. As each situation is different, you should seek advice based on your specific circumstances. Please call to arrange for an appointment. Copyright 2026 by Manulife Wealth Inc. Manulife, Manulife & Stylized M Design, Stylized M Design, Manulife Wealth, and Where will better take you are trademarks of The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company and are used by it, and by its affiliates, under license.

AI can be useful as a research and summary tool, but the idea that investors can delegate important financial decisions to it — at least in its current state — is misguided

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Happy New year 2026

You have a goal in mind and you’ve started to save for it. With all the choices available to you, deciding how to invest your savings may seem difficult. Join this webinar to learn the basics of investing and things to think about as you get started. Register now: Tuesday, January 20, 12:00 P.M., ET