The Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold as widely expected. The main takeaway from the statement and press conference was uncertainty: Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly emphasized the unclear economic outlook.

Although President Trump has said he has no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell, the Trump administration may be testing the laws underpinning Fed independence.

The outlook for U.S. growth and inflation hinges on the ability of U.S. supply chains to pivot out of China fairly quickly, a process that won’t be seamless.

The president has signaled some flexibility on tariffs but remains committed to his broader trade policy agenda.