2024 starts off with a bang!
Global markets stormed out of the gate in the first few months of 2024. The combination of a resilient consumer base and lower inflation levels created a positive backdrop for investor optimism. The S&P 500, S&P/TSX Composite, and the MSCI World Index were up 10.2%, 5.8%, and 8.4%, respectively, in the first three months of the year. Bonds showed up to the party late—Canadian and U.S. bonds (measured by the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index and Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index) were down 1.2% and 0.8%.

Here's a deeper look at the factors at play to start the year:
Global economy. The global economy continued to slow but has remained resilient. Excess savings accumulated by consumers during the pandemic, along with a robust job market, have provided a buffer against some economic difficulties. With interest rates above their short-term levels, it’s expected that the global market update economy will continue to slow. While there is debate over whether Canada and the U.S. will enter a recession in 2024, these economies are likely to at least experience a slowdown in growth.
Equities. Company profits were one factor supporting equity returns. U.S. companies saw a solid profit growth of nearly 8% in the recent quarter, as measured by the S&P 500 Index. In contrast, Canadian companies faced challenges with a decline of nearly 9%, as measured by the S&P/TSX Index. This difference in profit profile helps explain the performance gap between these two indices. Markets often respond to immediate events and news. Looking ahead in the near term, a lack of significant developments may lead to a pause or modest correction. However, the longer-term environment remains optimistic.
Inflation and interest rates. Inflation peaked in the summer of 2022 at 8.1% in Canada and 9.1% in the U.S. Since then, it’s fallen to 2.8% and 3.2% as of this past February. As a result, the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve have likely paused their interest rate increases. Investors are anticipating a shift towards rate cuts in 2024, with expectations of around three cuts of 0.25% each. While these predictions are likely to change based on economic conditions, it’s much more certain that any cuts will likely occur in the second half of the year.
We believe that equities are “priced for perfection” with markets expecting to avoid a recession, a gradual decline in inflation, and central banks cutting interest rates. In this environment, any headline surprises that state otherwise may create potential choppy markets in the near term, but that could create opportunities for selecting individual stocks that outperform.
The biggest hurdle to making money in the markets is the ability to stomach the roller coaster ride.
Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Financial markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. This material was prepared solely for informational purposes and does not take into account the suitability, investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person.
All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest. While helpful, these overviews are no substitute for professional tax, investment or legal advice. Manulife Wealth Inc. and/or Manulife Wealth Insurance Services Inc. ("Manulife Wealth") makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information contained in this publication.
This publication does not constitute a recommendation, professional advice, an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Manulife Wealth to any person to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment approach. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Diversification or asset allocation doesn’t guarantee a profit or protect against the risk of loss in any market. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This material is intended for the exclusive use of recipients in jurisdictions who are allowed to receive the material under their applicable law. The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and are subject to change without notice. Our investment teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. These opinions may not necessarily reflect the views of Manulife Wealth. The information and/or analysis contained in this material has been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but Manulife Wealth does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness, or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of the information and/or analysis contained.
The information in this material may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. The information in this document, including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Manulife Wealth disclaims any responsibility to update such information.
Manulife Wealth shall not assume any liability or responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage or any other consequence of any person acting or not acting in reliance on the information contained here. As each situation is different, you should seek advice based on your specific circumstances. Please call to arrange for an appointment.
Copyright 2024 by Manulife Wealth Inc.
Manulife, Manulife & Stylized M Design, Stylized M Design and Manulife Wealth are trademarks of The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company and are used by it, and by its affiliates, under license.